Tamil Nadu theatre: Can Amma 'cement' her party together?

Jayalalitha case has not just brought an end to the 18-year-long legal battle, it also virtually brought to closure the political life of South India's most enigmatic and charismatic leader.

Now, Amma has to quit from the CM's post. This is not the first time that Jaya had stepped down from the CM's post due to legal battles. In 2001, the Supreme Court ordered that she could not hold the post as she was found guilty in Tansi case.

Who will step into Jaya's shoes?
But, will Jayalalitha appoint O Paneerselvam again as the makeshift CM? Unlikely, say political pundits. Those who know Jayalalitha's mind, feel that she would opt for a junior candidate like Senthil Balaji, who is currently the state transport minister. Another name doing the rounds is of Sheela Balakrishnan, former TN chief secretary from Kerala, who is known for proximity for Jaya.
But, can she effectively run the party and the government while being in the prison is the big question. Will her party stick together? How will a leaderless or rudderless AIADMK fight the all-important assembly poll battle in 2016?

Political realignment on the horizon?
This could also force realignment of political forces in Tamil Nadu. Already, MDMK's Vaiko and PMK's Ramdoss have met DMK chief M Karunanidhi on Wednesday. Even DMDK's Vijayakanth has called upon all parties to join forces against AIADMK. More interestingly, DMK-run Kalaignar TV has begun giving space to Vaiko, signalling new-found bon homie.

Will this bon homie be cemented into a winnable electoral alliance is again a very important question. But the doughty fighter that Jayalalitha is, she cannot be easily written off. She has the ability to rise like a phoenix from ashes. But, can she pull off this time?

Parkalam! (let's see)
Will this also mean a window of opportunity for the BJP, which has polled an impressive 11 per cent votes in the Lok Sabha? But, does it have a charismatic leader who can inspire confidence of Tamil people? How all these parties play out, whether Karunanidhi can win again or can Jaya hold on to her own are questions that Jaya's verdict has thrown up. Interestingly, Jayalalitha has launched 'Amma Cement', a subsidised cement only a day before her being found guilty. Can Amma cement her party together now?

As for the answers to these exciting questions, the only answer that we can give at this time is typical Kamarajian Tamil response 'Parkalam' (let's see.)

K Raka Sudhakar Rao