People’s Pulse Survey: BJP Set To Wrest Power In Himachal Pradesh

The BJP is all set to win the 2017 Assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh with a clear majority. With this, the hill state would stay in line with the rhythm it has set for itself since the 1990s by voting out incumbent governments.

Peoples Pulse, a Hyderabad based political research organisation, conducted a week long Mood Survey in HP in the last week of October. This was before the BJP announced Prem Kumar Dhumal as the chief minister candidate.

In this Mood Survey, our research scholars conducted group discussions and held wide ranging discussions with people from all sections of the society. Across the state the trend is the same with people clearly in favour of the BJP. The disposition of the voter is such that if the party that it in power at the Centre is also at the helm in the state it would ensure a smooth flow of funds and hasten the development process. The party is set to win more than 40 Assembly seats. The ruling Congress would win not more than 20 seats.

Significantly there is no real anti-incumbency against Virabhadra Singh government. On the contrary, the voter is speaking favourably about this government that it has done some positive development work. This anti-incumbency factor, however, is working against the sitting MLAs belonging to both the Congress and the BJP.

The issues, which are chasing the ruling Congress is the Kotkhai rape case and the forest guard murder case in Mandi. To add to this the Congress is plagued by infighting due to which it has totally failed in projecting a united fight, which in turn has caused a lethargic and aimless campaign. What has further harmed the Congress is that Mr Singh has changed his constituency. Though the people are unhappy with demonetisation and GST, the Congress has failed even in remotely capitalising on them.

The BJP has unleashed a highly energetic and extremely visible campaign. Though there are fraught with groupism between Mr Dhumal, Mr Shanta Kumar and Mr JP Nadda, they have succeeded in putting up a united face during this campaign. Their use of money is very visible.

It also has to be mentioned that there is no visible Modi factor or NaMo sentiment. Actually the role of BJP or Congress national leaders is next to nothing in these Assembly elections.

The Mood Survey was conducted in all the 68 Assembly constituencies. The constituencies are small and in places where the contests are keen or tight and winner would be the one who would take electioneering to a crescendo by the time campaigning ends.