Pre-Poll Survey: BJP-IPFT Set To Wrest Tripura  

BJP-IPFT alliance is set to form the next government in Tripura and the ruling CP-M) would be ousted after a stint of 25 years in power since 1993. In a Pre-Poll survey conducted by Peoples Pulse, it clearly indicates ‘Chalo Paltai’ (Let’s Change) in Tripura. This change is historical as it’s for the first time in independent India that a state has witnessed a direct contest between the Left and the Right, making Tripura assembly election not merely an electoral contest, but also an ideological one.

Fought with intense passions and mudslinging campaigns, the victory of BJP over CPI(M) in Tripura would resonate at the national level. While it would be a double sundae for the BJP, for CPI(M) it marks the fall of their last bastion. This would be remarkable performance by the BJP as in 2013 its vote share was around 1.5 percent. Today almost half the electorate says that the BJP is their choice in power.

The Congress is but a blur on the Tripura electoral landscape and thereby continues its trend from the 2014 general elections. This development would have deep political implications. On an immediate basis it is the fall of the last Left bastion in the country. At another level the CPI-M and their Left associates have to go back to the drawing board on how to find political relevance and therefore importantly find a connect with the people.

The findings from the Pre-poll survey conducted by People Pulse reveals BJP getting 31-36 seats in the 60-member assembly, while the ruling CPI-M led Left Front have to contend with 19-23 seats. The BJP’s ally, IPFT would get 3-6 seats. Also, for the first-time Congress would fail to open its account in the state since 1978. Elections were held for 59 seats as one of the contestants passed away during the campaign. For any survey there is a margin of error of + or – three percent. The report did not factor last minute developments, which might have influenced the voter.

Peoples Pulse, Hyderabad based political research organization conducted a pre-poll survey from February 10 to February 14 with a sample size of 1,200. The survey was conducted in 20 Assembly constituencies selected on the basis of Population Proportionate Size (PPS) methodology. On the same basis three polling stations from each Assembly constituency and 20 samples from each of those polling stations were selected. Caste and ethnicity was represented on the basis of their proportion in the population and gender was given equal representation. Tripura University research scholars did the fieldwork. NEHU, Shillong, Political Science department, Prof RK Satpathy, Peoples Pulse senior associate and Ph.D. from CPS, JNU, Dr Sajjan Kumar trained the research scholars.

Dr. Sajjan Kumar supervised the field work and compelled the report. Data entry and analysis was done by Mr. Battula Suresh Babu, Doctoral Scholar, School of Economics, University of Hyderabad and Mr. S. Pradeep Kumar, Pranikh Tech. When asked about the biggest election issue, 52.3 percent respondents said it was development, followed by 16.6 percent citing unemployment. These two issues have replaced issues relating to ethnicity and identity politics. Further, when asked which party has better development credentials, 49.7 percent said BJP. The CPI-M came 13 percentage points down at 37 percent. The BJP’s pitch that it is for development and therefore is best suited to govern Tripura has struck a chord with the voter. By implication this means that the CPI-M has failed to meet the development expectations of the people. Another feature our survey revealed is the aging support base of the CPI-M.

They have a slight edge among voters who are over 60 years. But a majority of those below 60 are for a change with the BJP-IPFT in government. Youth have shifted away from the CPI-M and have found the BJP and the IPFT having more appeal. This was reflected when we asked about the impact of the BJP-IPFT. 55.8 percent of respondents said the alliance would be good for the stability and development of the state. 20.9 percent said this alliance would destabilise the state. This also reveals that the BJP slogan ‘Chalo Paltai’ (let us change) has found favour among the voters.

When asked whom they prefer their next Chief Minister Manik Sarkar emerged with 39.4 percent favouring him. However, BJP’s Biplab Kumar Deb was close behind with 37.4 percent backing him. IPFT leader N.C Debbarma was preferred by 5.2 percent and Sudip Roy Burman was preferred by 3.9 percent of the respondents. This means that the personal image of Manik Sarkar survived the deepening unpopularity of CPI-M. Despite that, when asked whether the Manik Sarkar government should be given another chance, 32.5 percent wanted the current dispensation to continue. But 49.9 percent wanted this government to go. Further 71.4 percent of the first-time voters were firm that the present government should not be given another chance. In terms of the vote share, the BJP-IPFT alliance seems to cross the 50 percentage points with BJP alone getting 43.5 percent votes while its ally IPFT getting around 12 percent, taking the combine to 55 percent. On the other hand, CPI-M led Left Front is likely to get the vote share of 39.4 percent. Also, the Congress seems to have lost the ground as the credible alternative with their vote share at 2 percent. Strong anti-incumbency coupled with the BJP election and campaign strategies of projecting themselves as the alternative have clicked. The Left’s counter campaign against the BJP-IPFT alliance has failed. And herein lies the story about the fall of the last “red bastion”.