India To Witness COVID-19 Peak In Mid-November

NEW DELHI: India witnessed a highest-single day spike of 11,929 COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours, taking the number of coronavirus cases to 3,20,922 on Sunday. India is the fourth worst-hit country in the world in the number of coronavirus positive cases and ranks ninth in terms of death toll.

According to study by academics at the Department of Community Medicine and School of Public health at the Post Graduate Institute of Medical Research and Education and Research, Chandigarh, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, ICMR, New Delhi said that India may witness a peak stage of COVID-19 pandemic around mid-November during which there could be a scarcity of isolation and ICU beds, and ventilators. The eight-week lockdown in India shifted the peak of the coronavirus by an estimated 34 to 76 days and the number of cases have been reduced by 69% to 97% by the end of lockdown.

The healthcare system has become more effective after lockdown and the demand can be met until the first week of November. The study further says that, "Isolation beds could be inadequate for 5.4 months, ICU beds for 4.6 months and ventilators for 3.9 months, projections by the health researchers showed." The testing, treating and isolation of   COVID-19 patients have been increased and the number of cases at the peak would come down by 70 per cent and the cumulative cases may come down by nearly 27 per cent.

The study claims that, "While lockdowns will delay the onset of peak and will give the much needed time for the health system to respond, strengthening the health system response in terms of testing, isolation of cases, treatment and contact tracing, as is being done currently, will have to be the mainstay to reduce the impact of the pandemic in India until vaccine becomes available."

The overall economic health system cost of this coronavirus pandemic is estimated to be 6.2 per cent of India's gross domestic product (GDP). The health ministry on June 9 said that COVID-19 related health infrastructure in the country has been strengthened. A total of 958 dedicated Covid-19 hospitals with 1,67,883 isolation beds, 21,614 ICU and 73,469 oxygen supported beds have been set up.