COVID 4th Wave Scare In India : Experts Weigh In On Differences In India And China

New Delhi: The explosion of Covid cases in China may have put the countries on alert mode, but the question is should India be worried about the onset of Covid fourth wave in the country. 

The Omicron variant BF.7 which is driving a surge in Coronavirus infections in China was first detected in India in October. However, the variant remained dormant and even now it’s still contributing to more cases in India. It is said China is more vulnerable to the new variant because its people had little exposure to it. 

After the Health Ministry’s advisory to States for sending the samples of positive cases to INSACOG labs, on 20 December, India recorded 131 fresh infections, while the number of active cases came down to 3,408. 

Amid India’s preparations to tackle the likely Covid fourth wave, let’s see what the experts have to say on the this: 

Ground realities very different between India and China?

Gagandeep Kang, a professor at the Wellcome Trust Research Laboratory, Christian Medical College, Vellore told PTI that the ground realities between India and China are different. Kang said India has been through multiple waves of Covid-19 infections and a sero-survey found over 90 percent of the population infected. 

She said China suppressed the virus for three years and only a tiny population was infected. Kang further said the surge in infections in China is on expected lines, given the data available. 

So many calls about China, about what that means for India, about XBB, about 3rd waves, about new mandates, about travel bans, about vaccine boosters- thought best to get views out to summarise the current situation. Long thread, be warned 🙂 1/n

— G Kang (@GKangInd) December 23, 2022

Prudence not panic is needed

India is unlikely to witness a fourth wave because most of the population has 3-dose protection against the virus and also due to herd immunity. Dr Naresh Purohit, Advisor, National Communicable Disease Control Programme said, India needs to exercise prudence rather than panic. 

“There is no need for mass testing right now. The government has rightly decided to conduct random testing at the airport to keep track of the entry of any new variants here,” noted Epidemiologist Dr Purohit told UNI on Sunday. 

Herd immunity may act as a shield?

Comparing the Omicron variant BF.7 with the Delta variant of Coronavirus, Vinay K Nandicoori, Director, Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology (CCMB) told PTI on Sunday that the BF.7 variant may not be serious in nature as Indians have developed herd immunity to an extent. 

“We (India) have seen the Delta wave which is a big one. Then we have got vaccination done. And then the Omicron wave came and we continued booster doses. We are different in many ways. What is happening in China may not happen in India because of that,” Nandicoori said.

IIT professor’ mathematical epidemiological model of COVID-19

Proposing a mathematical model on the emergence of Omicron variant BF.7, an IIT professor Maneendra Agrawal said people of India have nothing to worry about as this new variant has the potential to bypass the acquired immunity but not the natural immunity against the virus. 

Since 98 percent of people in India have natural immunity against the virus, therefore, the country is likely to escape the wave, Agrawal said. 

Also Read: Hyderabad: Random COVID Testing of International Air Passengers Begins At RGIA

(With inputs from agencies)