Has diplomacy any future in resolving the Middle East's conflicts?

New Delhi, Aug 7 (IANS) Amid the Middle East's gradual slide into a wider conflict, three incidents are telling - a ceasefire proposal announced by the leader of a superpower is gradually undermined and soon vanishes from discourse, a ceasefire negotiator is assassinated in a provocative gambit, and a hardliner is elevated to replace him. Does diplomacy have a future in resolving conflict in the region?

Exactly ten months into the outbreak of conflict in Gaza following the audacious Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, the violence continues unabated and hopes of a negotiated solution are fast receding amid a raft of escalatory measures by all sides.

Let's take the three incidents alluded to above in order.

On May 31, US President Joe Biden, amid criticism of the mounting civilian death toll in the Israeli retaliation, announced that Israel has agreed to a proposal that would lead to a “lasting” ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

He termed it "a comprehensive new proposal”, which would be "a roadmap to an enduring ceasefire", and unfold in three phases - the six-week first stage, which would comprise "a full and complete ceasefire", the withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza, a number of Israeli captives – especially the women and the elderly – released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, and flow of humanitarian aid in the beleaguered enclave.

The second phase was to comprise the release of “all remaining living" Israeli hostages, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, and a permanent "cessation of hostilities".

The final phase was a reconstruction plan for Gaza and the return of remains of any captives killed, Biden said, stressing that if the negotiations from phase one to phase two took more time, the ceasefire would anyway continue.

While Hamas had welcomed the US President's call, Israel's response to what the US President had termed a proposal endorsed by it was scarcely encouraging. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pointedly refrained from admitting his acceptance of the proposal and said the war would continue till "total victory".

Israeli military action in Gaza has only intensified since then and despite a raft of negotiations between the two sides, facilitated by Egypt and Qatar, Biden's ceasefire plan seems consigned to limbo, and the US President engaged in a rare outburst at the Israeli leader this week, as per media reports.

This is indicative of diminishing US leverage over Israel and the Netanyahu government, which has casually ignored all advice - not to attack Rafeh, allow more aid, steps to minimise civilian deaths, etc.

Then came the assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, hours after attending the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on July 30 - in another key signal against a negotiated settlement.

While Israel has refrained from taking responsibility, a furious Iranian leadership, across the board, has held it guilty and warned it of "harsh punishment". However, Iran has not acted so far, and seemed focussed, at this time, on building a diplomatic coalition of sorts with Arab nations and some of its allies, notably Russia. On Wednesday, acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani left for Saudi Arabia for the extraordinary meeting of the Executive Committee of Foreign Ministers of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), that Iran had called for in the wake of the assassination.

Iran has purportedly ruled out calls from some European and Arab nations for restraint, contending it is not afraid that its retaliation could spark war as the "provocative" violation of its sovereignty cannot be countenanced. It has also disdained that any action will impact diplomatic relations with the West, saying it has no illusions since the inability of European nations to honour their promises to alleviate sanctions in the wake of the US abrogating the JCPOA.

On a more direct note. the targeting of Haniyeh, considered a pragmatist, if not moderate, and open to political solutions, again seems intended to stymy negotiations. Facilitators, Egypt and Qatar, have already expressed their disinclination to enable talks if negotiators are targeted.

Finally, Hamas has hit back with its own spiritedly defiant move - making its Gaza chief Yahya Sinwar, deemed by Israel the prime planner of the October 7 attack and its top target, the successor to Haniyeh.

While the appointment of Sinwar highlights the group's continued focus on Gaza, the choice of a shadowy leader, ensconced deep in the besieged strip and ostensibly inaccessible, as its political bureau chief, and thus, the chief negotiator, means Hamas also does not set much store on diplomatic solutions.

Against this backdrop, the prospects for a diplomatic solution to the conflict, which threatens to spill over from Gaza and the Israel-Lebanon border to engulf the whole region, appear extremely minimal and inconceivable.

(Vikas Datta can be contacted at vikas.d@ians.in)

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