Market Expectations for Interim Budget 2024: Outlook and Predictions

ICRA: Outlook and Predictions

• Major policy changes and announcements unlikely
• Government's capex expansion and fiscal consolidation extent to be pivotal
• Expected fiscal deficit target for FY25 at 5.3% of GDP
• Budgeted capex of Rs. 10.2 trillion anticipated for FY25
• Projected GDP growth at 6.2% in FY25
• Anticipation for government's capital spending target for FY25
• Foreseen allocations towards infrastructure sectors like roads, highways, railways, etc.
• Enhanced capital outlay for defense anticipated

Nomura: Insights and Forecasts

• Anticipated balance between politics and economics, with a lower fiscal deficit target of 5.3% of GDP
• Government on course to achieve fiscal deficit target of 5.9% of GDP in FY24
• Expected focus on key demographics: Gareeb (poor), Yuva (youth), Annadata (farmers), and Nari (women), aligned with the BJP's GYAN strategy

Motilal Oswal: Expectations and Analysis

• Potential inclusion of populist schemes due to upcoming general elections
• Attention on populist measures aimed at the agricultural sector
• Likely enhancements to the new tax regime for attractiveness, such as increasing exemption income limits or reducing surcharge rates
• Possible incentives to stimulate the residential or commercial property market