Is Warangal By-election Referendum on TRS Rule?

Congress party says so. Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee (TPCC) president Uttam Kumar Reddy has gone a step further and said the Warangal Lok Sabha by-election is a referendum not only on TRS rule in the state, but also on BJP's NDA government at the Centre.

While the TRS president and chief minister K. Chandrasekhar Rao is expecting a majority of over 4 lakh votes, more than the majority secured by the then TRS candidate Kadiyam Srihari in 2014 general elections, the Congress is exuding confidence that its candidate and former MP Sircilla Rajaiah will win the seat with a majority of one lakh votes.

After working on various equations, Congress decided to nominate its former MP Sircilla Rajaiah hoping he can turn the tide for the party. Rajaiah was an MP in the 15th Lok Sabha from Warangal during 2009-14, but had lost to Kadiyam with a poor performance in the last election. Added to the swing that was being enjoyed by TRS after the new of Telangana was created Kadiyam's personal image also brought him a majority of 3.95 lakhs.

By effectively publicizing the state government's double-bedroom flat scheme and the 3-acre land to Dalits, KCR directed the leaders to ensure a record majority so that the party can prove there's no anti-incumbancy in the state. Moreover, the TDP-BJP combine is not able to find a candidate to contest from the seat. Although both the BJP and TDP have good cadre base, the parties could not find any leaders from SCs for which the seat is reserved. Even if the combine pitches a candidates, it won't make any difference for TRS.

KCR also wanted to communicate to people that the party is not ignoring its cadres at the grassroot by picking Pasunuri Dayakar for the seat. Dayakar comes from a poor financial background and the party is providing all his election expenses. KCR instructed all the party cadres and leaders working in the constituency to give their best to see that Dayakar wins with a record majority without asking him for any money whatsoever.

Groupism Clashes in TRS

However, the by-election may not be a cakewalk for TRS, though. The political enimity between the former deputy chief minister Dr. T. Rajaiah and the present deputy chief minister Kadiyam Srihari is no secret. Both the leaders are equally popular though Srihari is senior to Rajaiah. They were in different parties and contested against each other from Station Ghanapur Assembly constituency since 1999 and won twice each. Their enmity is continuing even after both joining from TRS - Rajaiah from Congress and Kadiyam from TDP - and a recent scuffle between the followers of both the leaders was a clear proof of the groupism in TRS. Rajaiah's group still believes that it was Kadiyam who fixed their leader in a situation where he lost his deputy chief ministership. If Rajaiah's cadres do not work for the party's victory, it will definitely affect the chances of the candidate.

Week Opposition TRS Advantage

The BJP-TDP alliance may not give any competition in the election this time as the party is still struggling to find a candidate to nominate in the election. The Congress' optimism sounds like a hype. Though the party has a good following in the district, the leadership is not effective enough to give a tough fight to the ruling TRS candidate. The joint candidate from both the Communist parties Gali Vinod Kumar is not that popular to make any impact in the election.