AP, Telangana Will Decide Who Wears The Crown In Delhi Durbar

By Political Guru

How does one discern the verdict of the recently concluded Assembly Polls; much touted by the electronic media as ‘the’ semi-final.

Fact is, India is continuously in election mode, leaving scarce time for quality governance. So every assembly, civic, municipal or panchayat level hustling can well be categorised as one final or the other. The saga just does not seem to end. And yes, it provides enough fodder for the tele-channels, print media and the denizens of the country to be glued to the television sets, newspapers, magazines and tabloids. It generates much required oxygen to the populace who have few alternatives to escape their ho-hum existence.

For sure, there are the cricket matches, skirmishes at the border or the latest Tollywood or Bollywood flick. Soap operas no longer have the panache to capture the imagination and attention span of television lovers. The tear jerker and melodrama wears off the engrossment of the viewer.

Now the score line- sweep by the Indian National Congress (or Congress for short) in Chattisgarh, winning 68 to Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) 15, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) accounting for 2 and 5 to various others.

The loss of Mizoram implies that the last bastion of the Congress in North-Eastern India crumbled. The Mizo National Front (MNF) garnered 26 seats in a house of 40, where the Congress could pocket a mere 5 and BJP made a maiden foray in the assembly by scalping a single seat. Meanwhile, Amit Shah is eyeing to pocket 25 odd seats in the Lok Sabha, in collaboration with the regional parties of North East in order to shore up the declining numbers of the saffron party in the Hindi heartland; a line of action that combines a sangfroid attitude with Machiavellian strategy.

One can only imagine as to what would transpire in 2019, amidst the cacophony and drum beats of IPL. However, ceteris paribus, it seems that as was the case in the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the two southern states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana will decide who wears the crown in the Delhi Durbar.

Let us dissect the trajectory of the two southern states of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) successfully demolished the alliance of Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Congress, Telangana Jana Samithi and CPI (called Mahakutami). The victorious TRS scorched the political ramps and provided fresh optics by winning 88 seats as against a mere 19 of the alliance members. So if this be the thought process of the people of Telangana, TRS certainly appear to have a head start in the 17 Lok Sabha seats.

Now take the case of Andhra Pradesh, which has 25 Lok Sabha seats. Against a resurgent YSR Congress and its charismatic leader, Y. Jagan Mohan Reddy, who does not seem to be carrying any baggage, the TDP in alliance with the Congress is unlikely to combat YSR Congress with the same gusto as 2014 following its dismal show in Telangana.

It may so transpire that Chiranjeevi and Pawan Kalyan join hands with Jagan Mohan Reddy and dethrone Chandra Babu Naidu. The incumbent Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh in all likelihood would then be squeezed out in this enthralling game of thrones.

A quick appraisal of Madhya Pradesh reveals that the Congress secured 40.9% of votes and won 114 seats, while BJP assembled 41% of the vote share to romp home with a 109 seats. The Chief Minister, (to be decided by the Congress scion Rahul Gandhi) would be dependent on the support offered by the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Effectively, the longevity of the government would hobble on the crutches of a few MLAs of these two parties.

The desert state of Rajasthan has thrown a dramatic surprise as the EVMs were unlocked. The Congress was awarded the yellow metal on the podium by a wafer thin vote difference against principal adversary BJP. The former eked out a 39.3% vote share and amassed 99 seats, while the opponents, lead by the magnetic and mesmerizing Vasundhra Raje Scindia provided a robust fight. The prevailing perception was that the bewitching former Chief Minister became arrogant and haughty. Yet the BJP appropriated 38.8% vote share with 73 seats in the newly formed state assembly.
Several battles would be fought across the swathes of India in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls and a significant one will be in Uttar Pradesh. Will the Bua- Bhatija combination (read Mayawati and Akhilesh respectively) forge an alliance? They have enough quivers in their arsenal to send shivers down the saffron spine.

Suffice to say, as of now it is BJP which has squandered an opportunity and the Congress is attempting to emerge as the numero uno alternative. But it is still a long haul.

So, as things stand it will be the victorious and luxuriant leaders of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, who seem set to play king makers in the next national government; and K.Chandrashekar Rao and Jagan Mohan Reddy (who has resurrected the fortunes of his party) appear to be the front runners in this engrossing battle.

Major news channels and newspapers that are salivating at the happenstance of a sudden Congress kismet upsurge are sanguinely ignoring the subterranean tectonic changes taking place in these two Southern states at their own peril.

It may be significant to mention as the winter session began, there were two protests in the Parliament. One, the TDP raised the issue of a new railway zone with Vishakaptnam as the zonal headquarters and two, YSR Congress law makers championed the cause of special status for Andhra Pradesh, a promise yet to be fulfilled. The twin demands led to uproarious scenes and subsequent adjournment of the Upper House, certainly indicative of the robustness and brawny strength of these two states in the national political canvass.

Also Read: NOTA Votes In Telangana Elections Exceeds Independent Candidates