Congress Upbeat In Gujarat, BJP Set To Win In Himachal: Peoples Pulse Survey  

The Gujarat 2017 election, which is dominating national attention, is headed for a dramatic finish between the ruling BJP and the resurgent Congress.

The last phase of elections in Gujarat came to an end on Thursday and the counting of polls will be held on December 18.

Peoples Pulse, political research organisation, conducted a pre-poll survey between 25th November and 5th December 2017. The survey showed that the BJP was getting a vote share of 44.8 percent and the Congress was getting 43.2 percent. Others were getting a share of 12 percent. This was in response to a question who the respondent would prefer were election to be held then.

The BJP is leading by a wafer thin 1.6 percent margin. Peoples Pulse operates on the premise of a (+ or –) marginal error of 3 percent in any survey and therefore is not calling the BJP nor giving any projection of the number of seats for the respective parties.

In all major parameters the BJP edge is slender. When asked if the BJP deserves another chance, the margin in favour of the BJP was just 1.8 percent. The BJP got 45.9 percent and the Congress got 44.1 percent. On who is best suited to rule Gujarat the margin in favour of the BJP was 1.7 percent. The BJP and the Congress got 45.3 and 43.6 percent respectively.

The Congress is badly hamstrung by the lack of an organisation structure through which it could effectively complete its electioneering. Further there is no state level leadership. Other than Mr Rahul Gandhi there was none who could shoulder the responsibility of the campaign. The Congress also did not focus as adequately in the urban areas as they did in rural areas.

Upfront the BJP has a backdrop of 22 uninterrupted years in power, which brings in its own baggage of anti-incumbency. Add to this is the social unrest – Patidar agitation, the Dalits disillusionment starting with Una, the feeling of negligence by the tribals and party’s perception as anti-Muslim.

Alongside farmers are unhappy with the minimum support price for cotton and groundnut. They join their urban brethren in sharing their angst at price rise. The urban voter has also to contend with GST, unemployment and demonetisation.

This has led to a situation where the Congress instead of garnering positive vote is ending up gathering negative vote in a contest, which is a literal two horse race. In another words the Congress is gaining because of the TINA factor (There is no Alternative).

The other issues which are troubling the BJP is the perception that corruption has gone beyond limits after Mr Narendra Modi left for Delhi to become the Prime Minister. The anti-incumbency is not just against elected representatives, but against the BJP local leaders too.

This finds a strong echo in chief minister’s Mr Vijay Rupani’s performance. 59.2 percent rated it as bad and only 18.6 percent found it good. It’s quite another matter that he leads the pack on the preference for the next chief minister with 22.9 percent.

What is making this cocktail truly bitter for the BJP leadership is that their core vote of traders and the middle class have deserted the party.

And this loss has translated into a gain for the Congress with Patidars, traders and the middle class adding to its existing base of Dalits, Tribals and Minorities.

Though Mr Rahul Gandhi is the face of their contest, particularly with people finding him as up-for-a-fight, those who soaked in the campaign heat were the three Gujarat youngsters – Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mewani.

The survey found that Mr Modi still has an impressive image. Despite this, there appears to be no much mileage on his allegations that Pakistan is interfering with these elections or the ‘Neech’ comment from Congress leader Mr Mani Shankar Aiyer.

What continue to be the BJP’s formidable weapon are its polling machinery and its booth level management. These are the BJP’s single largest advantage. Furthering this advantage is that the Koli community is backing them along with a section of OBCs.

The Muslims who have always been uncomfortable with the BJP are not too happy with the Congress either, as they feel they have not been adequately addressed by the Congress or Mr Rahul Gandhi. The Congress’ old KHAM is working with the Kshatriyas, Harijans, Adivasis and Muslims backing them. And they could draw comfort from the fact that Patidars have extended to make it KHAMP.

Research scholars from Gujarat Vidyapeet and Central University, Gandhinagar conducted the pre-poll survey in all 182 constituencies. It consisted of a qualitative and quantitative study with a structured questionnaire. Based on this we categorised constituencies as ‘Sure Win’, ‘Edge’, ‘Keen Contest’. This list is enclosed.

Due to practical and logistical reasons the survey could not factor the last minute thrust of campaign or the poll management of respective parties.

BJP Set To Form Government In Himachal Pradesh

The BJP is all set to win the 2017 Assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh with good majority. With this the hill state would stay in line with the rhythm it has set for itself since the 1990s by voting out incumbent governments.

Peoples Pulse, a political research organisation, conducted a pre-poll survey in HP between 23rd to 30th October, 2017. This was before the BJP announced Prem Kumar Dhumal as the chief minister candidate.

The survey showed that the BJP would get 39-44 seats in the 68-member Assembly with a strong performance in both the regions of upper Himachal and lower Himachal. The ruling Congress would be sent to the Opposition benches with 19-24 legislators. The results of the election held on November 9 but the counting was on a hold as the Gujarat Assembly elections followed Himachal. The counting will be held on December 18 for both states.

For the first time the CPI (M) may find representation in the House with one MLA. There would two to four Independents. For any survey the margin of error is + or – 3 percent.

Further the survey showed that most of the winners in the treasury or the Opposition benches would find themselves past the post with pretty thin margins.

When asked if the Congress government should be given another term, a majority of the respondents said ‘No’. When asked whom they would prefer as the next Chief Minister a majority backed Mr Dhumal. A close second was Mr Singh.

Significantly there is no real anti-incumbency against Virbhadra Singh government. On the contrary, the voter is speaking favourably about this government that it has done some development work. The survey showed that the anti-incumbency factor, however, is working against the sitting MLAs belonging to both the Congress and the BJP.

Today, it seems that the mood began in favour of the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections where it won all the four Parliament seats and bucked the trend where the party ruling the state gets a majority of the Parliament seats. Then the BJP held the edge in 59 Assembly segments.

The issues, which are chasing the ruling Congress is the Kotkhai rape case and the forest guard murder case in Mandi. To add to this the Congress is plagued by infighting due to which it has totally failed in projecting a united fight, which in turn has caused a lethargic and aimless campaign. What has further harmed the Congress is that Mr Singh has changed his constituency.

Though the people are unhappy with demonetisation and GST the Congress has failed in even remotely capitalising on them. Alongside the Congress failed in hitting back at the BJP slogan that they are a ‘Zamaanat ki Sarkar’.

On the other side the BJP has unleashed a high voltage campaign.

Though there are fraught with groupism between Mr Dhumal, Mr Shanta Kumar and Mr NP Nadda, they have succeeded in putting up a united face during this campaign.

It also has to be mentioned that there is no visible Modi factor or NaMo sentiment. Actually the role of BJP or Congress national leaders is next to nothing in these Assembly elections.

The Pre-Poll Survey was conducted in 17 Assembly constituencies with a total sample size of 3,400. It covered five polling stations in each constituency taking a sample of 40 each where equal representation was given to gender.

Peoples Pulse sample included 25 percent SCs, 5 percent STs and the remaining other communities. Dr. Sajjan Kumar Singh and Mr Bathula Suresh Babu, research scholars did the data analysis.