Congress conspiracy against Jagan is true: Experts

Soon after the results of survey conducted by CNN-IBN/Hindu on State politics was out, there was a panel discussion on a news channel. Anchored by IBN editor-in-chief Rajdeep Sardesai, the talk show panel comprised dignitaries such as N Ram, former chief editor of The Hindu, Sainath, rural editor of Hindu and Ramchandra Guha, a historian. Swapan Dasgupta, Senior journalist and columnist  too was part of the discussion. (Survey)

Interestingly, each and every member on the panel opined that Congress was deliberately conspiring against YS Jagan Mohan Reddy. Ramachandra Guha observed that many leaders in the Congress party want Jagan back in the party.
Guha also felt that Congress High Command's decision to not make Jagan CM soon after YSR's demise was understandable given the fact that Jagan lacked political experience. However, he added that the public are upset with the way Jagan is being harassed  with false cases.

Both Guha and Sainath said that public were aware of the fact that Jagan has been denied bail for the last 18 months now. Ram opined that Jagan's aura continues to spread across the state. Rajdeep said that one cannot ignore YSRCP's majority in bypolls and that Jagan had become a decisive force in the state.

According to the survey, Congress has suffered a 7% decline in its vote share. The party will get the support of 32 per cent voters in 2013 compared to 39 in 2009. However, the panelists were of the opinion that the real numbers might be much more than what is projected.

Sandeep Shastri said that Congress vote has sharply weakened in Andhra Pradesh to which the panelists concurred.
As per the survey, the Congress would win anywhere between 11 and 15 MP seats if elections are held now. Rajdeep said: "Many would believe Congress is doing even worse. When I put these figures to a few Andhra journalists they were surprised and said they expected single digits to Congress." Nodding in agreement, Shastri said the numbers will plunge further.

Sainath said: "Opinion polls have often been proved wrong in AP. In 2004, even exit polls have gone wrong. Less than a year ago, there were 17 assembly seats and one Lok Sabha seat. If you look at that area, 15 of 17 went to YSRCP, the margin were in excess of thirty to forty thousand for 7 seats. In five of them, the margin were in excess of 20,000. Those were not small numbers in Assembly elections. Take the case of Nellore Lok Sabha seat, you had one of the richest man in Andhra Pradesh contesting it. Right, you had Subba Rami Reddy. That seat was won by YSRCP by three lakh majority. That is a stunning result."

Rajdeep interrupted to say, "I believe Subba Rami Reddy spent a fair amount of money. Some even say he spent close to Rs 70-80 crore for Nellore bypoll elections."
Rajdeep asked N Ram if Congress was clearly heading for some kind of debacle in AP. N Ram opined that Congress will get much less seats if elections are held now. Also, there will be no change in Congress' fortunes even if Telangana state is declared.

"Absolutely. I also predict far lower numbers than projected. Congress debacle is guaranteed in Andhra Pradesh. Nothing can change that," added Ram.

- Sakshipost