1999 and 2014 polls: strange coincidences!

Coincidence is strange and comparison inescapable. The outcome of the just-concluded polls for Andhra Pradesh Assembly and the result of 1999 assembly elections, which late YSR lost, have striking similarities. The build-up, the run-up and the outcomes are similar.

In 1999 assembly elections, it was YS Rajasekhara Reddy, the father, who challenged the might of seemingly invincible Chandrababu Naidu. In 2014, it was YS Jagan, the son, who took on Chandrababu, who was reinforced by a resurgent Modi and buttressed by a rabble-rousing Pawan Kalyan. The political winds were hugely in favour of YSR and YS Jagan in both the elections and change was in the air. A jaded and out-of-colour Chandrababu fought with his back to the wall in both the elections.  

The Congress then and the YSRCP now appeared firmly in saddle and fighting-fit. But, clever Chandrababu latched himself on to the Atal Bihari Vajpayee bandwagon in 1999. Fresh from Kargil victory, Vajpayee and his BJP were riding the crest of a popularity wave nationally. Chandrababu abandoned the Third Front, of which he was the charioteer-in-chief and switched over to Atal Bihari. Riding on an Atal Bihari wave, Chandrababu saved his besieged citadel of Andhra Pradesh then.

Cut to 2014, despite all his secular perorations and promises of never leching and leering at the BJP again, Chandrababu saw a sea of opportunity in the Modi wave. He once again abandoned the to-be-born Third Front and went out of the way to woo Modi.

If it was Ab Ki Bari Atal Bihari then, it is Abki Bar Modi Sarkar this time around.

This made a marginal, yet critical difference. In 1999, there were over 75 out of 294 assembly constituencies where the YSR-led Congress lost by a whisker.  This time around, there were 25 out of 175 seats where the results were touch and go. This minor shift of votes made all the difference in our electoral system which is typically first-past-the-post and is of winner-takes-it-all variety. The Congress tally refused to move up beyond 90s then. This time, YSRCP's seat tally hovered around 60s.

 Post 1999 elections, the Congress was left shell-shocked. But YSR bounced back and worked indefatigably. In 2004, Chandrababu was trounced and YSR went on to become the chief minister.

The reversal 2014 is no less numbing. Are we witnessing the beginning of the inexorable end of Chandrababu and the inevitable bounce-back of YS Jagan, who is as indefatigable as his illustrious father was?  

-Raka@sakshipost